基于农户行为的土地利用人工社会模型的构造与应用

为探讨人工社会在土地利用变化研究领域中的应用,研究创建了一个模拟土地利用变化过程的人工社会模型(LUC-ASM)。该模型以农户和农民为两类主体(agents),模拟分析不同社会经济条件和政策影响下,两类主体对自己承包土地利用方式的微观决策所可能产生的宏观效应及其时空变化特征。以鄱阳湖区一个现实村落为主要研究对象,以农户从事各类生产活动的行为特征为准则,利用LUC-ASM模型模拟未来30年内该村落土地利用变化过程。结果表明,未来这一地区土地利用的变化与人口增长结构调整方式、国家土地利用与环保政策、社会经济发展态势等因素密切相关;在城市化的影响下,该地区的农业劳动力将会出现短缺,农村土地有可能被撂荒,需要及早采用政策措施予以避免。总体而言,LUC-ASM模型能够形象地反映土地利用变化过程的微观驱动机理及各种社会经济与环境因素影响的宏观效应,有助于深化我们对人与自然环境相互作用的认识。     

基于WASP的湖州市环太湖河网区水质管理模式

为保障清水入湖,以我国富营养化最为严重的淡水湖泊之一——太湖为例,建立了基于水体纳污能力的流域水环境管理模式.同时,针对河网地区水流往复性特点,以水质分析模拟程序(WASP7.3)模型为基础估算了湖州市环太湖河道COD和氨氮的水环境容量,并建立了综合点源和非点源的COD、氨氮日最大排污量(TMDL)管理模式.结果表明,在90%水文保证率下,研究区域水体环境容量CODCr为30153.4kg·d-1,氨氮为5112.4kg·d-1;按照区域2005年排污状况,未达标河段的COD最高削减率达到70%,氨氮最高削减率达到87.5%,才能满足整个流域水体功能要求.     

Multiple linear regression models of urban runoff pollutant load and event mean concentration considering rainfall variables

Rainfall is an important factor in estimating the event mean concentration (EMC) which is used to quantify the washed-off pollutant concentrations from non-point sources (NPSs). Pollutant loads could also be calculated using rainfall, catchment area and runoff coefficient. In this study, runoff quantity and quality data gathered from a 28-month monitoring conducted on the road and parking lot sites in Korea were evaluated using multiple linear regression (MLR) to develop equations for estimating pollutant loads and EMCs as a function of rainfall variables. The results revealed that total event rainfall and average rainfall intensity are possible predictors of pollutant loads. Overall, the models are indicators of the high uncertainties of NPSs; perhaps estimation of EMCs and loads could be accurately obtained by means of water quality sampling or a long term monitoring is needed to gather more data that can be used for the development of estimation models.     

北京市道路空气中NO_x现状监测及控制对策

通过对北京城市3种典型交通道路空气中NOx的时空变化监测发现,城市道路空气NOx中NO分担率主要集中在31.6%～81.1%,明显高于非交通道路中NO的分担率(3.0%～34.0%).其原因是NO主要来源于机动车尾气的排放.利用MOBILE软件计算了各类机动车排放的ρ(NOx),并相应地确定了影响交通道路中ρ(NOx)的敏感因素.据此提出了北京市交通道路空气中NOx若干控制措施,如控制车速、车型、油料等.     

Modelling sulphate-enhanced cadmium uptake by Zea mays from nutrient solution under conditions of constant free Cd2+ ion activity

A controlled hydroponic experiment was undertaken to investigate Cd uptake in relation to the activity of Cd species in solution other than the free ion (Cd²⁺) by maintaining a constant Cd²⁺ activity under variable SO₄₂⁻ and Cl⁻ concentrations exposed to maize (Zea mays var. Cameron) plants. The objectives of these experiments were: (1) to distinguish and quantify the different uptake rates of free and inorganic-complexed Cd from nutrient solution, and (2) to model the uptake of Cd by maize with a Biotic Ligand Model (BLM) in a system which facilitates the close examination of root characteristics. Results of the current experiments suggest that, in addition to the free ion, CdSO₄⁰ complexes are important factors in determining Cd uptake in nutrient solution by maize plants. Higher nominal SO₄²⁻ concentrations in solution generally resulted in a greater Cd accumulation by maize plants than predicted by the Cd²⁺ activity. A better integration of the complete dataset for the 3 harvest times (6, 9 and 11 days after treatment) was achieved by including consideration of both the duration of Cd exposure and especially the root surface area to express Cd uptake. Similarly, the fit of the BLM was also improved when taking into account exposure time and expressing uptake in terms of root morphological parameters.     

Effects of land use change and water reuse options on urban water cycle

The aim of this article was to study the effects of land use change and water reuse options on an urban water cycle. A water cycle analysis was performed on the Goonja drainage basin, located in metropolitan Seoul, using the Aquacycle model. The chronological e ects of urbanization were first assessed for the land uses of the Goonja drainage basin from 1975 to 2005, where the ratio of impervious areas ranged from 43% to 84%. Progressive urbanization was identified as leading to a decrease in evapotranspiration (29%), an increase in surface runo (41%) and a decrease in groundwater recharge (74%), indicating a serious distortion of the water cycle. From a subsequent analysis of the water reuse options, such as rainwater use and wastewater reuse, it is concluded that wastewater reuse seemed to have an advantage over rainwater use for providing a consistent water supply throughout the year for a country like Korea, where the rainy season is concentrated during the summer monsoon.     

基于化学反应动力学的饮用水铝形态分布模型研究

目前饮用水中的总铝超标现象十分严重,其危害与铝的存在形态密切相关.本研究利用三层前反馈式的人工神经网络技术,建立了基于化学反应动力学的铝形态预测模型.结果表明,无机单核铝和溶解铝的浓度变化速率与反应时间及水温、pH、总铝、氟离子、磷酸根和硅酸根等水质参数密切相关,二者的反应级数均为三级.通过人工神经网络可有效地进行饮用水中无机单核铝和溶解铝反应动力学参数的预测;反应速率常数k和初始浓度项1/c02的计算值和模型预测值的相关系数R均大于0.999.由M市管网水铝形态的预测结果可知:当总铝浓度0.05mg·L-1时,模型对无机单核铝浓度的预测误差较大;而当总铝浓度0.05mg·L-1时,模型有较好的预测能力,无机单核铝和溶解铝的相对预测误差分别为±15%和±10%.     

优化模型在污泥处理厂选址中的应用

在我国大中城市,污水处理厂的不断兴建使污泥处理问题应运而生。采用混合整数优化模型可以解决污泥处理厂的科学选址问题,达到科学布点、合理运输、节省投资费用的目的。在传统厂群规划模型的基础上将目标规划、周密的约束条件等融于其中,并采用对于线形规划和非线性规划问题适用的LINGO软件进行求解。根据东莞市拟建的36个污水处理厂污泥产生预测情况,对污泥处理厂的设置进行了分析预测,详细对比了建一个、两个、三个污泥处理厂的运输费用、投资费用、运行费用等,最终确定兴建两个规模均为800t/d的处理厂,其位置分别位于东莞市厚街镇和常平镇,为厂址选择和规模提供了科学依据和保障。     

空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型

传统的空气质量评价的参数化组合算子模型不具有可比性和普适性。在适当设定指标参照值cj0和指标规范变换式基础上,提出了一个对多项空气指标的规范值xj都适用的空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型;采用混合蛙跳算法对模型中的参数进行优化,得到优化后对多项空气指标皆普遍适用的空气质量评价的参数化多元组合算子模型。该模型被应用于多个不同地区的不同组合指标的空气质量评价,其评价结果与用其它多种方法的评价结果相一致。结果表明:用指标规范值表示的参数化多元组合算子模型为空气质量评价提供了一种计算简便和普适通用的新方法。     

下水道中微生物反应及水质转化的数值研究

以污染物对流扩散理论为基础,在分析下水道系统水环境中各种物理、化学和生物现象的基础上,结合活性污泥数学模型(ASM)的相关理论,建立了下水道系统的微生物和水质转化数学模型,该模型考虑了多个水质变量间的耦合计算及其相互转化和迁移过程。应用实验室实测资料对模型进行验证分析,计算结果和实测值吻合较好,表明该模型可为下水道系统的设计、水质评估等提供指导,也可为污水处理厂等提供前期水质参考。